A construction site in full swing in Toronto on Wednesday March 18, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn
Ontario’s population could increase by as much as six million over the next two decades and some experts are warning that governments need to start “playing catch up” on building out the necessary infrastructure to accommodate that sort of influx before it is too late.
New projections released by Statistics Canada this week suggest that Ontario’s population will grow from 14.8 million to approximately 19 million by 2043 in a medium growth scenario and could even surpass 21 million in a higher growth scenario. |
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It is a good news story for the region’s economic prospects and vitality, most experts agree.
But it undoubtedly will pose a challenge for the Golden Horseshoe region, which is already struggling with a housing crisis and crippling gridlock. “Population growth is really good and really important for the province. It helps fuel economic growth, it reunites families and it is great for the culture and the dynamism of our communities. But it also will continue to put pressure on our infrastructure which is already stretched,” Matti Siemiatycki, a professor and the director of the Infrastructure Institute at the University of Toronto, told CP24.com this week. “Infrastructure takes long-term planning, it is not something you can just flip a switch on.” While there was a trend of people leaving the Greater Toronto Area for less expensive markets elsewhere in Canada during the pandemic, the new projections point to a rate of population growth in Ontario, which will exceed every province other than Alberta and British Columbia. |
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Most of that increase will be driven by immigration, continuing a longstanding trend in Canada, but the projections also point to an aging population, which could put additional pressure on things like the healthcare and long-term care systems.
In Ontario’s case, Statistics Canada says that the number of people over the age of 85 could rise from approximately 345,000 in 2021 to as much as 921,000 by 2043 in a medium growth scenario. “We are definitely playing catch up because our systems are stretched at the moment. Housing is becoming increasingly unaffordable, you see our healthcare system struggling under the weight of the pandemic and then you see everything else. You know, when there are heavy rains, our sewer systems can’t accommodate them, we are having power outages, our cell phone services are vulnerable. So we are seeing what it is like when infrastructure creeks,” Siemiatycki warned. “With more people that will put even more pressure on the system and require us to be really strategic about which infrastructure we choose, how we build it out and then making sure it can handle the stresses it is going to face as our community grows.” |
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