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Cassandra Szklarski, The Canadian Press
Published Thursday, June 30, 2022 11:17AM EDT Last Updated Thursday, June 30, 2022 3:07PM EDT Researchers examining the threat of emerging COVID-19 strains predict Omicron BA.5 will account for nearly 70 per cent of cases by Canada Day.
Modelling expert Sarah Otto of the Coronavirus Variants Rapid Response Network says the fast-spreading subvariant is on track to dominate infections across the country. The University of British Columbia professor predicted a July wave, peaking in August. 
A member of the Governor General's Foot Guards, wears a COVID-19 mask, waits on the red carpet at the Governor General's Performing Arts Awards Gala in Ottawa on Saturday, May 28, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Patrick Doyle
"The last sequence data was mid-June but the projections for July 1 would be: roughly 13 per cent (of cases are) BA.4, and 69 per cent BA.5," said Otto, co-lead of the computational biology and modelling arm of the network, also known as CoVaRR-Net.
"I'm referring to it as a third Omicron wave because I've lost count of all of the other waves." The head of Ontario's COVID-19 advisory group also suspected BA.5 to be the main driver nationally, and pointed to several indicators that suggest it is already responsible for more than half of his province's reported cases. |
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Dr. Fahad Razak said the strain is especially adept at evading immunity from vaccination and prior infection, leading to "a very fast rise."
A national breakdown of variants by the Public Health Agency of Canada charted a dramatic jump earlier this month, with BA.5 responsible for 14.6 per cent of COVID-19 cases identified through whole genome sequencing as of June 5, up from 7.1 per cent the previous week. Quebec's public health director Dr. Luc Boileau said Wednesday that BA.2.12.2 remains the dominant strain in that province, but that BA.5 is gaining ground faster than others. Those two Omicron cousins, combined with BA.4, make up more than three-quarters of Quebec infections. |
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